| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): I’m so sick fuck capitalism: I was sick before long covid but was making it work. Now it’s somehow harder to find accommodating jobs than it was before 2020. The ableism is just so overt in my industry now in a way it wasn’t before the pandemic. My health is [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19_Pandemic/comments/1hg3vvu/im_so_sick_fuck_capitalism/ | 06:57 |
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| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Core protocol for ECDC studies of vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation with Severe Acute Respiratory Infection laboratory-confirmed with SARS-CoV-2 or with seasonal influenza Version 4.0: This core protocol for ECDC studies of VE [... want %more?] → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/core-protocol-ecdc-studies-vaccine-effectiveness-against-hospitalisation | 09:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: Endo’s End Around: How One of the Nation’s Largest Opioid Makers Escaped a $7 Billion Federal Penalty: by Bob Fernandez and Craig R. McCoy for The Philadelphia Inquirer This article was produced in partnership with The Philadelphia Inquirer , which was a member of [... want %more?] → https://www.propublica.org/article/endo-settlement-opioids-justice-department | 11:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: The dangers of industrialisation: why we need to rebuild a convivial society: Experts have warned that artificial intelligence could lead to extinction of humans.1 In 1973 Ivan Illich, priest, thinker, and critic of industrial society, warned in his book Tools for Conviviality that “a tool can grow out of [... want %more?] → http://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj.q2577.short | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Research shows possiblity to build microchips that can identify multiple diseases from a single cough or air, and can be produced at scale. Technology uses field-effect transistors, an alternative to traditional color-based chemical diagnostic tests [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/1hg8n3p/research_shows_possiblity_to_build_microchips/ | 13:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT+: Pfizer’s 2025 forecast meets expectations and leaves room for debate: Pfizer expects its 2025 sales and earnings to meet analysts' forecasts, but there is still room for debate on a company whose stock has struggled. → https://www.statnews.com/2024/12/17/pfizer-2025-guidance-starboard/ | 13:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharmalot: STAT+: Sanofi is the latest drug company to sue HHS over payment terms for 340B hospitals → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2024/12/17/sanofi-hrsa-hhs-340b-medicines-jnj-lilly-bristol-hospitals-clinics/ | 14:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from Marc Veldhoen on Mastodon: (news): Please be very careful with these "ZeroCovid" accounts. They do not report or explain the science but are activists who abuse and manipulate science findings for their agenda. It does damage trust in science and harms population health. → https://mastodon.online/@marc_veld/113668481376818984 | 14:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Targeting the C Diff Pathogen and Its Immune-Suppressing Toxins: Joseph Zackular, PhD suggests that mRNA vaccines and monoclonal antibodies could offer more effective treatments for recurrent C difficile infections → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/targeting-the-c-diff-pathogen-and-its-immune-suppressing-toxins | 15:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: We’re reading about Congress reining in PBMs, Sanofi suing HHS, and more → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2024/12/17/pfizer-jnj-cancer-novartis-abbvie-astrazeneca-340b-hospitals-sanofi-hhs-sandoz-antitrust-pbm/ | 15:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Scotland bans WhatsApp on government phones: Scottish politicians faced scrutiny for their use of the app during the pandemic. → https://www.politico.eu/article/scotland-uk-bans-whatsapp-on-government-phones/ | 17:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from MedPageToday: Most U.S. Teens Are Abstaining From Drinking, Smoking, and Marijuana, Survey Says: (MedPage Today) -- Teen drug use hasn't rebounded from its drop during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the results from a large annual national survey released Tuesday.About [... want %more?] → https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/publichealth/113429 | 18:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from Marc Veldhoen on Mastodon: (news): No NO, vaccines do not cause autism: it is genetically determined. → https://mastodon.online/@marc_veld/113669358560234583 | 18:36 |
| peetaur | remember when a study proves something does not cause something, what they actually prove is they're biased cuz really all they did is get a null result...beyond that is politics, not science | 18:57 |
| peetaur | and that's also how you lose public trust | 18:57 |
| peetaur | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21058170/ | 19:00 |
| peetaur | https://publichealth.stonybrookmedicine.edu/phpubfiles/Hep_B_and_autism.pdf | 19:00 |
| peetaur | https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5800222/ | 19:00 |
| de-facto | If an agent was present and did not elevate the expectation value for something in a statistically relevant way it proves that the agent does not cause this particular something | 19:04 |
| de-facto | This is logically sound and an empiric fact, there is no room for interpretation if the study was made properly | 19:05 |
| peetaur | it doesn't prove it doesn't cause it... it just is the absense of evidence it causes it | 19:14 |
| peetaur | here is proof that beheading does not cause death https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_the_Headless_Chicken right? | 19:14 |
| peetaur | it's logically sound within the limits of deductive logic, not inductive logic... so it just leaves an unknown | 19:15 |
| de-facto | If an agent is present and there is no elevation of the expectation value its proven that it can not possibly cause it because the probability for occurrence is independent of agent presence | 19:16 |
| peetaur | and I have a high standard of evidence, and criticize both sides... the 3 papers I showed show an association, which also does not prove causation. But it means there needs to be a quality study done, like a randomized control trial by a few impartial 3rd parties (not drug manufacturers or lobbied agencies) to see whether it's true or just by association... people that dont' give that shot also give their kids more exercise, social life, fresh air, | 19:17 |
| peetaur | outdoor activity, good food, etc. so it's highly confounded | 19:17 |
| de-facto | You can generalise this, but it's logically sound for each agent effect pair | 19:17 |
| peetaur | do you agree it's still deductive logic and unknown and confounded either way? | 19:18 |
| de-facto | So if JFK Jr says "vaccines cause autism" its nonsense because he generalised the claim to a degree that it's not scientific anymore. Trump choosing him as head of healthcare shows how stupid Trump actually is | 19:19 |
| peetaur | some say with a bad design or observational study a strong enough correlation proves causation, but my standards are higher... like the "...receipt of SES(special education services)...hepatitis B vaccine in infancy (12.91%) was significantly higher than the unexposed population (1.44%)" being 8.97x the chance proves, but still you can and should do a proper study. | 19:20 |
| de-facto | If there is absence of any correlation it's an absolute proof there can't possibly be causation | 19:21 |
| peetaur | even if JFK and Trump are stupid, at least they'll try... not just do everything lobbyists force on them | 19:21 |
| peetaur | (who are they lobbyists for anyway? ;) everyone is a lobbyist) | 19:21 |
| de-facto | If there is a correlation, the question arises if it's causation or confounding factors involved | 19:22 |
| peetaur | that was 100 %wrong... you can have a confounder that's the inverse that makes it look like ther'es no correlation | 19:22 |
| peetaur | so sure the condition "absense of any correlation" is not satisfied because there are 2 correlations at least, but it's absense of known/apparent correlations | 19:23 |
| de-facto | The best way is double blinded like in the approval studies | 19:23 |
| peetaur | the approval studies are against a false placebo | 19:23 |
| peetaur | but yes the best way is double blind randomized control | 19:24 |
| peetaur | imagine I cut some heads off with an axe, and some with a gillotine and conclude beheading is safe because the rate of death is equal... like what does that tell you | 19:24 |
| peetaur | true placebo or it's dumb... only time it's tolerable is when it's impossible. like what if you test food...what is a food that has no effect? air? that won't work...they won't be satiated. | 19:25 |
| peetaur | so naturally food studies are even worse quality | 19:25 |
| peetaur | like they test whole food plant based vs highly processed with some small portion animal products and conclude plant based is why you get less disease short term rather than the processed food which has already independently been shown as the caues by other studies with even stronger correlations | 19:26 |
| de-facto | I can't follow what you say | 19:27 |
| peetaur | which part | 19:28 |
| peetaur | I started by complaining not that the conclusion is wrong, but they biasedly defend the lobbyist view instead of trying to get an actual conclusive result. | 19:29 |
| peetaur | are you with me so far? | 19:29 |
| peetaur | and deductive reaosning gets you a falsifiable proof...not an inductive proof. It can still be wrong and disproven (by contradiction... no matter how many confirmations) | 19:30 |
| peetaur | and absense of proof is not proof of absense | 19:30 |
| peetaur | and show me a study against a real placebo like saline...they don't do them...they just test it vs some other vaccine with similar adjuvants and such | 19:31 |
| de-facto | It's confuse what you say with true and false studies etc | 19:31 |
| peetaur | I've seen studies they do with saline vs aluminum hydroxide though ... on monkeys, and you see a dose dependent relationship to brain damage. So why can't we accept it's high risk until we actually test it properly? | 19:31 |
| peetaur | (and I'm sure something like that exists for thimerosol but I haven't read a proper one ... one of the above mentions it but it's observational probably) | 19:32 |
| de-facto | Generalisation of such claims is always not trustworthy, if one study was done properly it's a statement about this one scenario only | 19:33 |
| peetaur | I agree ... studies can appear to contradict but have a specific even unknown context where it applies and others may not | 19:34 |
| peetaur | and the strategy they use to fight that generalization problem is more generalization :D just do it on larger groups or something and still ignore the individual conditions | 19:35 |
| peetaur | (I think both works better...find things that work generally, but also identify cases where alternatives work better) | 19:35 |
| de-facto | And such generalisation is where alert bells for politicizing studies should ring | 19:36 |
| peetaur | probably...but I find a lot of different thigns have a lot of different alert bells | 19:36 |
| peetaur | not just with politics but every kind of bias, even just simple things like confirmation bias, healthy user bias, and such | 19:37 |
| de-facto | So for example if JFK Jr twitters about vaccines causing something in general it's clear his motivation is everything but informing the public about scientific results | 19:38 |
| peetaur | does he use that wording though...thing A causes thing B? | 19:39 |
| peetaur | normally he just insists we need better evidence before we do things beyond just showing the results and suggest maybe you take it... eg. mandatory for school admission, or hiding results that they don't like (like the simpsonwood meeting discussed) | 19:40 |
| peetaur | they want "informed consent"... can't have informed consent without being informed | 19:40 |
| de-facto | He abuses it for political purposes, undermining trust in real scientific claims | 19:41 |
| peetaur | like when you hear it straight from his mouth it's like this https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1682052896588980225 | 19:41 |
| peetaur | but when you hear his opponents, they say claims I can't find him actually making | 19:41 |
| peetaur | like I would say "it's safe to assume a hep-b vaccine in infancy causes autism" but not "it causes autism" | 19:43 |
| peetaur | you have to gamble... which is safer? the 8-11x rate in various studies or the "safe and effective" "science is settled" "take it or you can't go to school" political crap? | 19:43 |
| peetaur | it's like a 0.000000000000001% chance vs a 0.000000000000008% for both autism and the disease it's supposed to prevent (assuming mother is not hep-b positive) so who cares? | 19:44 |
| peetaur | driving to the doctor has higher risk than either the disease or vaccine, so why bother :D | 19:44 |
| peetaur | (unless mother is hep-b positive... the case where it is highly relevant) | 19:45 |
| peetaur | (^ there's that ungeneralized is better if possible position) | 19:45 |
| peetaur | breastfeeding or not seems to nearly double the risk of autism... like why do we make decisions about vaccines when this alone is stronger | 19:46 |
| peetaur | if you don't do that first (eat good diet, plus breastfeed = good ... crap diet or don't breastfeed = high rate of all kinds of issues) then don't even bother with less significant things | 19:46 |
| LjL | <peetaur> like I would say "it's safe to assume a hep-b vaccine in infancy causes autism" but not "it causes autism" ← the former is quite clearly a way to state the latter | 19:46 |
| LjL | <peetaur> here is proof that beheading does not cause death https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_the_Headless_Chicken right? ← one case of something not happening is not the same as a study establishing it does in fact not happen most of the time | 19:47 |
| peetaur | an assumption is not a fact | 19:47 |
| peetaur | not clearly a way to state the latter | 19:47 |
| peetaur | so if you could reproduce that result 50 times then you could conclude that beheading does not cause death? | 19:48 |
| peetaur | cuz I would not conclude that :D | 19:48 |
| peetaur | (it's called reductio ad absurdem... it's supposed to be obviously wrong; the fact it's obviously wrong is the point) | 19:48 |
| LjL | it's called making an invalid analogy | 21:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Study shows resistance to Paxlovid is uncommon: Researchers found that SARS-CoV-2 clinical resistance to Paxlovid in EPIC-HR was infrequent, occurring in 6 of 530 treated participants (1.1%). → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/study-shows-resistance-paxlovid-uncommon | 21:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: (news): Health workers think COVID, flu vaccines safe and effective, but many remain hesitant, global survey shows → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/health-workers-think-covid-flu-vaccines-safe-and-effective-many-remain-hesitant-global | 22:55 |
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